The main trends of 2015?

The last 2 weeks have witness some crazy moves in the Forex market. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) started the ball rolling but releasing its peg of the EURCHF. This decision rocked the financial industry and caused ripples which also affected brokers. Alpari, a UK broker declared bankruptcy and it is in a midst to find a buyer. FXCM a listed broker in the NYSE almost followed Alpari’s foot step. I do not think we would be witnessing such a move for the next 20 years again. I was lucky to catch the selloff. I sold usdchf and broke my personal record. Most pips captured in 5 minutes. I don’t think it will happen again. 1244 pips in less than 5 minutes.

usdchf

So you have the biggest buyer of the Euro, SNB giving up on the Euro and the very next week we would have Draghi announcing if ECB would be introducing a stimulus program for the Euro region. The Euro alarms  could not sound even louder…Bee Boo…Bee Boo…Mayday…! SNB has already given a hint on the ECB announcement results . I was watching the announcement live and was able to sell the Eurusd at 1.1562. A nice 300 plus pips profit at the moment.

Which comes to the main gist of this article. Would the eurusd continue to trend down and USDX which is closely tied to the euro continue to trend up? Would Abenomics continue to weaken the Yen?

EURUSD

EURUSDMonthly

The Fed not only an introduction of stimulus but blew way beyond the figures of Bloomberg survey of at least 550 billion Euro of bond buying. The European Central Bank launched an expanded asset purchase program of 60 billion euro a month that will last from March 2015 until September 2016. A total of 1.1 Trilion Euro. That is about 60 billion euro a month. To add to that, Draghi announced that ECB will add more if its not enough. That’s an open ended QE… From the chart, you can see that we do not see any visible support for the eurusd until 1.0844 and if that is broken the 1.0852 area. Whatever it is, I would be selling the EURUSD at any established resistance area.

USDX

#USDXMonthly

The USDX managed to close above 92.63 and currently is trading near resistance of 95.64. The close above is a sign that USDX has a strong potential to go up much further to the next resistance of round number 100 or 101.21. The mandate is to buy the USDX at any established support.

USDJPY

USDJPYDaily

Ever since USDJPY hit 120.00, price has found a resistance area. Currently price is trading in a tight triangle which means only one thing. Something is brewing and price is going to move in a big way soon. Nearest support on the down side is 114.42 and the upside is 122.57. Wait for price to break the trend lines before deciding the direction.

 

 

Forex Market Hours. When to trade and when not to

The Forex market is open 24 hours a day 5 days a week and close during weekends. This provides trades great opportunities to trade at any time of the day or night. So should traders just trade whenever they have time to sit down in front of the PC? The right time to trade is one of the most crucial points in becoming a successful trader. In this article I would like to share about the trading hours when the market is the most active and therefore has the biggest volume of trades. Depending on your style of trading, you can then choose the best time for you to achieve your best trading results.

Forex sessions

The activity on the Forex market is divided into 4 trading sessions: Pacific, Asian, European and North American sessions. Each session is active during the working hours of the region concerned.

 

Pacific and Asian Session

The Pacific session starts first when financial markets of Wellington (New Zealand) and Sydney (Australia) open. The Asian session is next to open, members of the Asian nation include Tokyo (Japan), Hong Kong (Hong Kong) and Singapore (Singapore). The active trading during these sessions is USD/JPY, AUD/USD and NZD/USD, since the opening of the Asian session is followed by the closing of the North American session of the previous day. The euro is almost not traded prior to the opening of the European session in London.

 

European session

The European session starts at the close of the Pacific and Asian trading hours. The major financial centers of Europe start in London (England), Frankfurt/Main (Germany) and Zurich (Switzerland). London is the world’s largest financial center representing 30% of all FX trading volume. During the European session pairs with the British pound (GBP and Euro (EUR) are actively traded. The Japanese yen (JPY), on the contrary, loses investor appetite for it during the trading day. Additionally, the following pairs are traded with the U.S. dollar: USD/CHF, GBP/USD, EUR/USD.

 

North American session

In the middle of the European session the North American market opens its gates starting from the financial center in New York (the USA), roughly 15% of the global Forex trading volume takes place here. The most of the trades are executed within the operating period of both European and North American trading sessions, when the liquidity of such pairs as: USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/USD is great. By the middle of the North American trading hours when Los-Angeles wakes up, the trading in Europe stops, that is why the liquidity of the European cross-rates (EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF) falls. Experienced traders almost do not trade these pairs during the North American trading hours.

Since I use instaforex as my broker, I would use solely the instaforex time for easy reference.

Day Lights Savings – time brought forward one hour

market hours

Pre – Premarket

(The above time table highlighted is the actual trading sessions of the market)

 There are hours when two sessions overlap:

Sydney and Tokyo: between 00:00 — 06:00 including pre market which I did not highlight
London and Tokyo: between 07:00 — 08:00 including pre market which I did not highlight

New York and London: between 15:00 — 18:00
Pips movement during the week

On Monday, the Forex market is usually quite unless there were some major events which happened during the weekend or late Friday during the New York trading hours. This is because most professional trader try to close all opened positions on Friday in order to avoid unexpected currency fluctuations caused by events which happened during the weekend. Examples of such events are the G7 events which discuss on trade relations. On Tuesday, forex activity start picking up and this lasts till the end of the Friday’s North American session. Just a note, the Non Farm Payroll week usually see huge spike in Forex volume from Tuesday onwards and last till Thursday. On Friday, volume dries up till the Non Farm Payroll results are out.

 

Possible buy for AUDUSD and NZDUSD if price remains where they are today.

AUDUSDDaily

AUDUSD – Price has his temporary support and has been trading in a range for about 7 weeks. Recent price action has suggested that AUDUSD might be able to move up. I would but about 50%of today’s candle range (provided price close like this tonight). The confirmation would be a price close above 0.8661. My first target would be 0.8813 and second target would be 0.8888. Stops would be a close below 0.8566.

NZDUSDDaily

NZDUSD – Like its close counter part, the kiwi also looks like its ready to move up. The confirmation would be a price close above 0.7881. My first target would be 0.7985 and second target at 0.8065. Stops would be a close below 0.7806.

As usual shift stops to one pip above entry once first target is achieved. Recent economic news has been slight bear. However I feel that the prices have been over extended to the sell side and we should see some retracement. Manage your money well as both AUDUSD and NZDUSD move the same direction.

EURUSD looks for temporary recovery

EURUSDDaily

EURUSD looks to recover from the recent drop in price. This I believe is due to the recent good news from Euro’s leading economy Germany. Germany escaped from recession when it posted a GDP growth of 0.1% in Q3. With this result, it did not  suffer 2 quarters of economic squeeze. Germany also revised its Q2 result where a -0.2% contracted was revised to -0.1%. The year on year economy grew 1.2%. 0.2% more than the expected 1%.

France also reported better than predicted growth rate of 0.3% in Q3. This data however was marred by a downward revision of Q2′s data.

These news managed to pull eurusd up. However I am still bearish on the eurusd as the overall fundamentals are still gloomy. With US registering its  highest QUITS (number of workers quitting their jobs) since April 2008 which is a sign of confidence in the economy, I believe any move up in the eurusd is a temporary reprieve.

I would look at bearish price action to sell the eurusd at these mentioned levels:

Level 1 – 1.2807, Level 2 – 1.2946 and Level 3 – 1.3085

 

Finally the move is here. Lookout for Euro, Yen and Dollar Index.

EURUSD

On the 12th of October 2014, I gave that the trading zones of the EURUSD at 1.2894 and 1.2500. Please refer to the chart below and click here if you want to look at the previous posting regarding to the EURUSD.

EURUSDDaily

Currently price is still trading in the grey box. However movement has come back to life.

EURUSDDaily

Price is currently trading near the support price of 1.2500. A close below 1.2500 should see prices test the next support at 1.2440 before the strong support of 1.1968. Recent numbers from the Euro region has not been encouraging especially from Germany which many view as the leader of Euro. German preliminary CPI dropped to -0.3% and this does not augur well for the German economy.

USDJPY

Do you still remember this chart? I posted it on October 8th, 2014. Click here to refresh your mind.

USDJPYDaily

I gave the lowest retracement value for the USDJPY at 105.42. Priced traded to that level and found support there. Since then the USDJPY started its bullish climb and today broke above 110.07 and will definitely close above it as Japan expanded the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing today.

USDJPYDaily1

The next major resistance of the USDJPY is 114.27. Any retracement, use previous resistance as support.

Dollar index (USDX)

The dollar index is still trading in the box and currently price is testing the year high at 86.74.

#USDXDaily

Any close above 86.74 would see prices going higher. Strong resistance is at 90.35