Commodity currency and Commodity rules…..

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AUDUSD

The commodity currency traded well last week. The Australian dollar has surprisingly been resilient in the face of geopolitical risks. News coming out from China were not so positive where property prices in China showed a decline. This should be negative for Aussie, however the currency found support in Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey’s comment on his optimism about Australia. Let’s see what has RBA Governor Glenn Stevens this coming Tuesday. Current Price action shows a range market.

 

NZDUSD

It was a nice bearish move. Both first target at 0.8740 and second target at 0.8675 achieved. On Thursday, we would have the RBNZ Rate State which would tell us if the Kiwi has more bearish momentum to hit the final target at 0.8545.

 

GOLD

All I can say is what a pull back that was. Price pull back to about 1293 traded up to 21sma.

 

SILVER

The price action was much clearer. The support was 20.32. Price rejected it well. Same like the gold, price traded till the 21sma.

 

Commodities leading the way for this week….

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AUDUSD
Shorted on Thursday 10th July. Price action showing that price is not ready to come down as yet as we have long wicks both side and the 11th July candle is small which means that the momentum is not there yet. Will monitor price action for bearish signals or make take out with small profit. Target to downside is 0.9334 followed by 0.9242.

NZDUSD
Price is trading at the 3 year high. If price manage to close above 3 year high of 0.8846, then we would see more momentum to the upside. Daily chart shows upside momentum is dying down. Wait for price action to determine the next move. Target to downside is 0.8740, followed by 0.8675 and final target at 0.8545

GOLD
Momentum on the upside as price closed above April high. Buy on pull backs. Next target is 1347.97.

SILVER
Same as gold, momentum is on the upside. Buy on pull backs and next target is 21.75.

Crude Light
Trading in a triangle. Momentum is to the downside. Price action shows higher highs. See if price will reject the98.20 area marked in blue.

Crude Light Breaking out of triangle soon

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#CLWeekly

On the weekly chart, it seems the crude light oil would be coming to the end of the triangle soon. This means only one thing, “a breakout is imminent”. Would the current conflicts which are going on be the catalyst of the breakout? Below are the list of conflicts which will cause the oil to move.

1) Ongoing Iraq Civil War escalating.

2) Potential New Gaza War .

Currently Crude light is trading in the 3 year high area. So watch out for the move.

 

Bearish Engulfing on AUDUSD

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audusdweekly

A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the AUDUSD chart in the W1 time frame. I was waiting for this short since Monday as updated in my video as prices are trading at resistance on the W1 time frame as well as the MN time frame. I mentioned that if prices test the 0.9400 to 0.9500 area, we should sell the AUDUSD. Price did test it today and I sold AUDUSD at 0.9406 and the best place to sell is the 0.9430.

audusddaily

My targets would be 0.9260 followed by 0.9042 and finally 0.8810. My stop loss would be a close above 0.9504. There were 2 reasons I choose to sell the AUDUSD. From a technical perspective, prices are trading at a strong resistance area which has multiple time frame resistance. From a fundamental perspective, the RBA has announced that they are not comfortable with AUDUSD trading at prices above 0.9500.

Prices trading at support and resistance…

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GBPUSD managed to close above 1.7043. If you had bought it, do take some profit off the table. From the monthly chart, the next target is 1.7491. Shift remainder trades to 1 pip above entry.

EURUSD, price showed bearishness at 1.3689. You would have shorted on July 3rd and targeted the 21sma which was achieved on the same day. Price is still bearish for the moment. Wait till it establishes support. Good place to look is the 1.3538 area.

AUDUSD. Price did close above but the next day, we had a dark cloud cover forming at 0.9427 resistance. Warning signs for those who insist on buying at this level. On 3rd July price traded downwards from the get go and never looked back. Price is taking a breather at support of 0.9321. If price managed to close below 0.9329, it will go down further to 0.9242. Monthly chart show price testing resistance.

EURGBP. Price close below 16th June low of 0.7958 and trade lower. Look for support is 0.7838.

GOLD. Price trading in a tight range of 1332 – 1305. Strong close above 1332 would see price move higher and strong close below 1305 would see price move downwards. If move down target the 21sma on D1. Move upwards, target 1347.

USDX. Trading in a tight range 79.88 and 80.31. Price found support at 79.88 and formed a morning star which is a bullish pattern. Price then went up till the next resistance at 80.31.

Monday is an observing day as price are not showing any trade opportunities. Will updates as I see trades coming.