28th – 1st August Forex Price Action

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After waiting for weeks which turned into months, finally some volatility is back in the forex market. This week, I am going to focus on 3 pairs namely EURGBP, AUDUSD and USDX.

EURGBP

eurgbpdaily

Last week, traders were waiting for the BOE meeting minutes to see if any of the 9 member committee voted for the rates to be raised. Once they saw that all 9 voted for interest rates to remain signaling rates are likely to remain at 0.5% for some time, trader sold the Pound immediately. For this reason, I do  not see that Pound would gain more strength in the short term against the Euro until wage growth catches up. The EURGBP is in a prolong downtrend and I think we should see some mini reversal.

Trade Idea:Buy EURGBP at 0.7913 or 0.7892. 1st target at 0.7936 followed by 0.7980 and 0.8103. Stop loss is a close below 0.7873

 

AUDUSD

audusddaily

Once again 0.9450 proved to be a very stubborn resistance for the AUDUSD to break through. I shorted the AUDUSD once again at 0.9440. I did not wait for any price confirmation. This trade was just based upon long term fundamentals as explained in my previous post.

Trade Idea: Sell AUDUSD. First target at 0.9368, followed by 0.9268. Stop loss is a close above 0.9471

 

USDX

#usdxdaily

The dollar index seems to have reached the resistance of 81.09. I expect some price resistance at this area.However this does not change my view about the a bullish dollar.

Trade idea. Buy at establish support levels

 

 

Commodity currency and Commodity rules…..

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AUDUSD

The commodity currency traded well last week. The Australian dollar has surprisingly been resilient in the face of geopolitical risks. News coming out from China were not so positive where property prices in China showed a decline. This should be negative for Aussie, however the currency found support in Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey’s comment on his optimism about Australia. Let’s see what has RBA Governor Glenn Stevens this coming Tuesday. Current Price action shows a range market.

 

NZDUSD

It was a nice bearish move. Both first target at 0.8740 and second target at 0.8675 achieved. On Thursday, we would have the RBNZ Rate State which would tell us if the Kiwi has more bearish momentum to hit the final target at 0.8545.

 

GOLD

All I can say is what a pull back that was. Price pull back to about 1293 traded up to 21sma.

 

SILVER

The price action was much clearer. The support was 20.32. Price rejected it well. Same like the gold, price traded till the 21sma.

 

Commodities leading the way for this week….

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AUDUSD
Shorted on Thursday 10th July. Price action showing that price is not ready to come down as yet as we have long wicks both side and the 11th July candle is small which means that the momentum is not there yet. Will monitor price action for bearish signals or make take out with small profit. Target to downside is 0.9334 followed by 0.9242.

NZDUSD
Price is trading at the 3 year high. If price manage to close above 3 year high of 0.8846, then we would see more momentum to the upside. Daily chart shows upside momentum is dying down. Wait for price action to determine the next move. Target to downside is 0.8740, followed by 0.8675 and final target at 0.8545

GOLD
Momentum on the upside as price closed above April high. Buy on pull backs. Next target is 1347.97.

SILVER
Same as gold, momentum is on the upside. Buy on pull backs and next target is 21.75.

Crude Light
Trading in a triangle. Momentum is to the downside. Price action shows higher highs. See if price will reject the98.20 area marked in blue.

Crude Light Breaking out of triangle soon

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#CLWeekly

On the weekly chart, it seems the crude light oil would be coming to the end of the triangle soon. This means only one thing, “a breakout is imminent”. Would the current conflicts which are going on be the catalyst of the breakout? Below are the list of conflicts which will cause the oil to move.

1) Ongoing Iraq Civil War escalating.

2) Potential New Gaza War .

Currently Crude light is trading in the 3 year high area. So watch out for the move.